Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Aho 50.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 84.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 80.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carrick
Aho
Last 5: Carrick 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
49.9% (851)
+5.2%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
53.5% (144)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (53)
43.3% (60)
+5.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
58.2% (225)
53.2% (554)
Away
51.5% (270)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
56.7%
49.1%
P2
52.8%
50.8%
P3
54.4%
49.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |