Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 49.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 55.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 69.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 61.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carrick
Hertl
Last 8: Carrick 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carrick
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carrick
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (352)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.7%
Power Play
81.3% (16)
61.0% (246)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (45)
44.1% (136)
-1.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
46.9% (192)
55.2% (696)
Away
51.6% (221)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
48.1%
55.4%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:07 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |