Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 49.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 87.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 58.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Carrick
Hertl
Last 10: Carrick 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
4
0
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carrick
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (307)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.9%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
59.8% (296)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (56)
34.4% (32)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
50.3% (175)
54.3% (709)
Away
48.5% (194)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
41.0%
51.6%
P2
51.2%
53.6%
P3
55.3%
58.6%
Final 5 min
37.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 02:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |