Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carrick wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 62.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Carrick
Hertl
Last 10: Carrick 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Carrick
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Carrick
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Carrick
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (521)
57.0% (718)
-3.1%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
64.9% (188)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (229)
44.2% (77)
+7.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
52.7% (408)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.1% (377)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
51.4%
56.3%
P2
56.6%
55.4%
P3
52.1%
60.5%
Final 5 min
57.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 18:22 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |