Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carrick
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carrick
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
58.1% (823)
-3.0%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
56.2% (265)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (53)
62.9% (35)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
58.2% (225)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.5% (270)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
56.7%
51.6%
P2
52.8%
63.8%
P3
54.4%
58.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |