Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 63.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 58.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 89.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 85.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Ryan
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ryan
Lafferty
Last 6: Ryan 4-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Lafferty
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
42.6% (324)
+18.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
31.3% (16)
+68.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
43.8% (16)
+2.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +68.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Ryan is 63.2% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Ryan shoots right. Lafferty is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lafferty
Home
56.7% (201)
40.9% (181)
Away
54.8% (208)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Ryan
Lafferty
P1
56.7%
42.2%
P2
56.8%
36.4%
P3
53.7%
48.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |