Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Lafferty 50.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 66.2%
Defensive zone
Norris 66.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 62.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Norris
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Norris
Lafferty
Last 6: Norris 4-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
0
Norris
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Norris
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
50.7% (144)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
50.0% (2)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
50.0% (10)
+3.1%
On power play, Norris has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Norris is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Norris shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Norris
Lafferty
Home
53.6% (373)
53.2% (62)
Away
54.1% (394)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Norris
Lafferty
P1
61.8%
53.3%
P2
51.7%
46.7%
P3
49.8%
52.8%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 11:41 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Josh Norris |