Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 93.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 86.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Matthews
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Matthews
Reinhart
Last 6: Matthews 5-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Reinhart
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
44.1% (324)
+14.2%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
40.3% (72)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
33.9% (118)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Reinhart is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
Matthews
Reinhart
Home
59.1% (528)
40.5% (232)
Away
55.1% (695)
41.8% (282)
By Period
Matthews
Reinhart
P1
56.2%
46.4%
P2
58.1%
32.6%
P3
56.4%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |