Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Reinhart wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 43.3% vs Zegras 39.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 50.8%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 81.3%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 62.5%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Reinhart
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Reinhart
Zegras
Last 7: Reinhart 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Reinhart
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
4
0
Reinhart
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (2,173)
38.6% (1,669)
+3.9%
Power Play
46.5% (525)
38.5% (148)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (339)
28.6% (7)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Reinhart shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Zegras
Home
44.9% (1,528)
39.9% (882)
Away
41.2% (1,509)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Reinhart
Zegras
P1
44.5%
40.2%
P2
40.5%
38.0%
P3
44.5%
37.7%
OT
43.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
42.1%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |