Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Steel 50.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 62.9%
Defensive zone
Steel 63.2%
Neutral zone
Steel 60.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Larkin
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Larkin
Steel
Last 5: Larkin 1-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Larkin
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Larkin
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
52.5% (200)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
71.4% (7)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
40.0% (45)
+8.2%
On power play, Steel has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Larkin
Steel
Home
52.4% (647)
49.5% (109)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Larkin
Steel
P1
52.2%
49.5%
P2
53.1%
47.5%
P3
51.7%
56.6%
OT
61.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |