Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Steel 48.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 69.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Tavares
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Steel
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
49.5% (553)
+8.0%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
61.3% (31)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
30.6% (49)
+28.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Steel is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
Tavares
Steel
Home
61.0% (661)
46.4% (347)
Away
55.3% (584)
51.4% (286)
By Period
Tavares
Steel
P1
58.6%
52.1%
P2
57.8%
49.8%
P3
58.4%
45.2%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |