Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Steel 48.8% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
O'Reilly
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
O'Reilly
Steel
Last 8: O'Reilly 6-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
49.5% (553)
+6.6%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
61.3% (31)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
30.6% (49)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Steel is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Steel
Home
58.3% (408)
46.4% (347)
Away
53.6% (487)
51.4% (286)
By Period
O'Reilly
Steel
P1
57.7%
52.1%
P2
54.8%
49.8%
P3
55.2%
45.2%
OT
45.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |