Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Couturier 55.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 69.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.3%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Sturm
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Sturm
Couturier
Last 5: Sturm 4-1 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
55.1% (1,008)
+7.0%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
64.1% (142)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
53.3% (45)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Couturier is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Sturm
Couturier
Home
61.8% (191)
58.1% (609)
Away
56.3% (231)
53.9% (586)
By Period
Sturm
Couturier
P1
58.0%
55.3%
P2
57.9%
55.8%
P3
60.6%
57.4%
Final 5 min
58.3%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |