Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Couturier wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 55.6% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 65.0%
Defensive zone
Couturier 91.6%
Neutral zone
Couturier 77.8%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Couturier
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Couturier
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
0
Couturier
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
3
0
Couturier
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (1,008)
49.3% (670)
+5.8%
Power Play
64.1% (142)
53.7% (121)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (45)
33.3% (3)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Couturier is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (405).
Couturier shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Couturier
Stamkos
Home
58.1% (609)
54.0% (400)
Away
53.9% (586)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Couturier
Stamkos
P1
55.3%
48.6%
P2
55.8%
54.5%
P3
57.4%
45.4%
OT
45.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |