Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 23 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 31-15 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 88.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 67.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
31
(46 meetings)
15
31
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
2
Larkin
Kuraly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
21
Larkin
Kuraly
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
8
Larkin
Kuraly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.5% (5,141)
+0.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
56.0% (100)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
44.2% (1,086)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
52.7%
51.1%
P2
53.1%
49.9%
P3
52.1%
50.0%
OT
58.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:01 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |