Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 55.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 86.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 70.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Kuraly
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
55.3% (515)
-2.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
55.6% (9)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
44.8% (58)
-1.0%
On power play, Kuraly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
54.9% (408)
57.3% (293)
Away
50.0% (432)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
52.5%
53.8%
P2
51.7%
51.5%
P3
53.6%
57.6%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |