Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 8: Kuraly 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuraly
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
2
Kuraly
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kuraly
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (982)
51.6% (1,084)
+0.7%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
61.0% (246)
-19.1%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (245)
44.1% (136)
-4.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
50.3% (680)
55.2% (696)
Away
48.5% (590)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
49.5%
55.4%
P2
49.6%
54.8%
P3
49.0%
48.9%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |