Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuraly wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 53.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kuraly
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
1
Kuraly
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (515)
54.1% (717)
+1.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
61.9% (210)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (58)
58.1% (31)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
57.3% (293)
58.1% (492)
Away
51.2% (289)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
53.8%
57.1%
P2
51.5%
54.0%
P3
57.6%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |