Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuraly wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.2% vs Hertl 56.6% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 89.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 66.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 5: Kuraly 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Kuraly
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuraly
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (370)
56.6% (632)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (127)
63.6% (22)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (529).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
52.8% (269)
59.7% (434)
Away
44.7% (228)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
53.2%
51.0%
P2
45.8%
64.0%
P3
47.9%
57.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |