Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kuraly wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Zegras 35.4% (+19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 71.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 98.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 96.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 96.2%
96.2%
3.8%
Kuraly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Kuraly
Zegras
Last 5: Kuraly 5-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
0
Kuraly
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
29.6% (230)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (150)
100.0% (1)
-54.7%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Kuraly shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Zegras
Home
54.6% (304)
30.6% (147)
Away
45.5% (290)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Kuraly
Zegras
P1
55.2%
33.0%
P2
45.7%
31.7%
P3
49.5%
25.6%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |