Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.6%). Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Monahan 52.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 54.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Monahan
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nelson
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nelson
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.4% (853)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
58.6% (174)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
46.5% (144)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Nelson
Monahan
Home
52.5% (590)
53.4% (624)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Nelson
Monahan
P1
50.5%
53.7%
P2
54.4%
52.4%
P3
51.4%
51.6%
OT
47.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |