Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 53.1%). Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 80.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 50.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Sturm
Monahan
Last 5: Sturm 4-1 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
51.5% (641)
+2.5%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
62.8% (129)
-34.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
33.3% (9)
+16.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
54.0% (287)
53.9% (362)
Away
52.0% (302)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
53.5%
48.0%
P2
51.0%
57.0%
P3
55.1%
54.1%
OT
20.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |