Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Monahan 51.3% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 83.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 60.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
Sturm
Monahan
Last 10: Sturm 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
8
Sturm
Monahan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Sturm
Monahan
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
2
Sturm
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
51.1% (11,356)
+6.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
53.7% (2,580)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
46.0% (766)
+5.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
57.1% (1,614)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
56.5%
50.9%
P2
54.9%
51.7%
P3
57.4%
51.0%
OT
60.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | OT | 03:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |