Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Monahan 52.8% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 74.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 76.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 76.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Cates
Monahan
Last 7: Cates 1-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Cates
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Cates
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
53.2% (823)
-7.8%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
55.3% (159)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
48.4% (95)
-3.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
46.3% (423)
54.6% (529)
Away
43.6% (438)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
46.3%
49.0%
P2
47.1%
55.4%
P3
42.1%
53.6%
OT
18.2%
61.9%
Final 5 min
44.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |