Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +19.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Zegras 37.0% (+19.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 70.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 94.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 91.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Monahan
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Monahan
Zegras
Last 6: Monahan 5-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Monahan
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
0
Monahan
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
0
Monahan
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
33.0% (264)
+20.0%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
32.1% (56)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
50.0% (2)
-2.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Monahan shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Monahan
Zegras
Home
53.8% (558)
35.3% (173)
Away
51.7% (578)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Monahan
Zegras
P1
49.5%
33.0%
P2
54.8%
35.7%
P3
52.8%
29.7%
OT
61.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |