Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Zegras 39.5% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 60.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 82.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 75.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Monahan
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Monahan
Zegras
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Monahan
Zegras
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Zegras
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Monahan
Zegras
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
39.0% (1,703)
+12.1%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
38.5% (148)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
25.0% (8)
+20.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Monahan shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Monahan
Zegras
Home
52.3% (7,387)
40.5% (908)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Monahan
Zegras
P1
51.0%
40.0%
P2
51.7%
38.6%
P3
51.0%
38.2%
OT
53.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |