Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 62.0%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 61.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.2%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Monahan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Monahan
Karlsson
Last 5: Monahan 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Monahan
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (641)
51.4% (735)
+0.1%
Power Play
62.8% (129)
63.5% (115)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
42.9% (133)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Monahan shoots left. Karlsson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Monahan
Karlsson
Home
53.9% (362)
52.3% (524)
Away
52.5% (417)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Monahan
Karlsson
P1
48.0%
50.7%
P2
57.0%
51.4%
P3
54.1%
53.2%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
51.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |