Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Aho 48.7% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 83.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 81.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 87.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Duchene
Aho
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
47.4% (953)
+8.0%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
58.0% (174)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
41.6% (77)
-0.4%
On even strength, Duchene has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
56.2% (642)
50.2% (609)
Away
54.3% (580)
46.9% (595)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
56.2%
48.7%
P2
56.5%
50.2%
P3
52.9%
47.0%
OT
64.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 1 | 03:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 14:29 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |