Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Aho 54.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 73.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Duchene
Aho
Last 8: Duchene 2-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Duchene
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Duchene
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
54.5% (870)
-1.5%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
62.4% (266)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
37.1% (62)
+6.7%
On power play, Aho has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
54.9% (408)
53.9% (603)
Away
50.0% (432)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
52.5%
54.1%
P2
51.7%
55.0%
P3
53.6%
57.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |