Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Geekie wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Geekie 57.3%
Defensive zone
Geekie 73.6%
Neutral zone
Geekie 62.8%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Geekie
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Geekie
Aho
Last 10: Geekie 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
7
Geekie
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
6
3
Geekie
Aho
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Geekie
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,307)
50.1% (6,619)
-1.3%
Power Play
45.7% (188)
58.9% (1,310)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
46.3% (464)
-0.6%
On power play, Aho has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,923).
Geekie shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Geekie
Aho
Home
50.0% (1,281)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
46.8% (1,343)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Geekie
Aho
P1
48.6%
51.1%
P2
48.8%
52.0%
P3
47.7%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:59 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:15 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |