Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Aho 51.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 16-9 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 57.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 83.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 60.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
9
(25 meetings)
16
9
Paul
Aho
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
3
Paul
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
8
2
Paul
Aho
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Paul
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
50.1% (6,619)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
46.3% (464)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
52.7% (2,412)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
53.9%
51.1%
P2
51.0%
52.0%
P3
52.0%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |