Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Zacha wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 46.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 77.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 76.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Zacha
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Zacha
Aho
Last 5: Zacha 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (247)
48.5% (778)
-3.2%
Power Play
58.1% (31)
63.4% (191)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (18)
50.8% (65)
-28.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Zacha is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Zacha shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Zacha
Aho
Home
39.7% (131)
51.3% (530)
Away
49.7% (165)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Zacha
Aho
P1
42.9%
50.0%
P2
46.4%
51.3%
P3
42.3%
52.1%
OT
87.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
45.3%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | OT | 03:13 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 07:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |