Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 49.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 81.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carrick
Aho
Last 5: Carrick 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Carrick
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (307)
48.5% (778)
+0.7%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
63.4% (191)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (56)
50.8% (65)
-2.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
50.3% (175)
51.3% (530)
Away
48.5% (194)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
41.0%
50.0%
P2
51.2%
51.3%
P3
55.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
37.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |