Sebastian Aho vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 72.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 70.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 60.4%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Aho
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Aho
Karlsson
Last 6: Aho 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Aho
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Aho
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
58.5% (135)
-8.6%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
80.0% (5)
-26.5%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
44.4% (18)
-1.1%
On power play, Karlsson has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Aho shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Aho
Karlsson
Home
53.2% (554)
63.7% (91)
Away
46.5% (501)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Aho
Karlsson
P1
49.1%
54.4%
P2
50.8%
66.7%
P3
49.7%
51.9%
OT
58.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |