Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 54.2%). Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 23 meetings). Crosby wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crosby 53.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 44-32 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 60.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Crosby
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
44
(76 meetings)
32
44
Crosby
Hertl
Last 10: Crosby 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
15
14
Crosby
Hertl
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
16
Crosby
Hertl
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
14
Crosby
Hertl
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crosby
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (17,990)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.4% (4,733)
59.3% (1,975)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (765)
46.3% (806)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,851).
Crosby shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Crosby
Hertl
Home
55.0% (11,972)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
52.0% (11,535)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Crosby
Hertl
P1
53.6%
53.6%
P2
53.9%
54.1%
P3
53.3%
55.3%
OT
49.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |