Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Crosby wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crosby 52.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 57.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.3%
Neutral zone
Crosby 52.7%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Crosby
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Crosby
Hertl
Last 10: Crosby 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Crosby
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
0
Crosby
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Crosby
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crosby
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (1,443)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.6%
Power Play
54.7% (369)
59.8% (296)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (34)
34.4% (32)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Crosby is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,199).
Crosby shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Crosby
Hertl
Home
53.0% (931)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.0% (915)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Crosby
Hertl
P1
50.3%
51.6%
P2
55.4%
53.6%
P3
53.3%
58.6%
OT
47.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |