Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.2% vs 57.5%). Crosby wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crosby 57.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 76.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.4%
Neutral zone
Crosby 52.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Crosby
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Crosby
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Crosby
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
0
Crosby
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crosby
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (1,437)
57.0% (718)
+0.8%
Power Play
60.9% (381)
64.9% (188)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
44.2% (77)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Crosby shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Crosby
Hertl
Home
59.2% (985)
59.2% (463)
Away
57.2% (887)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Crosby
Hertl
P1
57.3%
56.3%
P2
59.5%
55.4%
P3
58.5%
60.5%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |