Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Crosby wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Crosby 56.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Crosby
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Crosby
Hertl
Last 6: Crosby 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Crosby
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Crosby
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Crosby
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (1,451)
54.1% (717)
+2.1%
Power Play
61.4% (293)
61.9% (210)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (38)
58.1% (31)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Crosby is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Crosby shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Crosby
Hertl
Home
59.1% (939)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.7% (843)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Crosby
Hertl
P1
54.9%
57.1%
P2
60.8%
54.0%
P3
55.4%
56.6%
OT
53.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
57.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |