Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 64.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
McDavid
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
McDavid
Lorentz
Last 9: McDavid 7-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
McDavid
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
48.3% (497)
+3.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
63.6% (11)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
38.5% (39)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
50.7% (513)
50.4% (238)
Away
53.2% (498)
46.0% (309)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
52.3%
49.1%
P2
51.6%
48.0%
P3
51.7%
47.2%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |