Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Lorentz 48.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 69.1%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 77.0%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 65.5%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
McTavish
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McTavish
Lorentz
Last 6: McTavish 4-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
McTavish
Lorentz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
1
McTavish
Lorentz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
48.3% (497)
-5.9%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
63.6% (11)
-23.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
38.5% (39)
+11.5%
On power play, Lorentz has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
McTavish
Lorentz
Home
41.9% (372)
50.4% (238)
Away
42.8% (353)
46.0% (309)
By Period
McTavish
Lorentz
P1
47.2%
49.1%
P2
36.2%
48.0%
P3
43.6%
47.2%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:18 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 09:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 08:09 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |