Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lorentz wins 45.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 50.9% vs Johnson 53.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 63.8%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 62.9%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 63.9%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Lorentz
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Lorentz
Johnson
Last 6: Lorentz 0-6 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
4
Lorentz
Johnson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Lorentz
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Lorentz
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (292)
55.3% (284)
-3.6%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
50.0% (26)
-10.0%
On power play, Johnson has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Lorentz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Lorentz shoots left. Johnson is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Johnson
Home
52.3% (155)
57.4% (162)
Away
50.0% (154)
52.0% (148)
By Period
Lorentz
Johnson
P1
59.2%
51.5%
P2
50.9%
61.8%
P3
43.2%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 05:22 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |