Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Lorentz wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 49.4% vs Johnson 45.7% (+4.5%)
Offensive zone
Johnson 53.4%
Defensive zone
Johnson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Johnson 54.8%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Lorentz
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (135)
44.6% (285)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Lorentz is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Lorentz shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Johnson
Home
50.7% (75)
50.8% (179)
Away
46.9% (64)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Lorentz
Johnson
P1
60.0%
41.3%
P2
46.3%
41.8%
P3
44.0%
49.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%