Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lorentz wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 48.2% vs Johnson 50.7% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 71.2%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 80.4%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 52.5%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Lorentz
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Lorentz
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Lorentz
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (497)
47.4% (78)
+0.9%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
57.6% (33)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (39)
100.0% (2)
-61.5%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Lorentz shoots left. Johnson is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Johnson
Home
50.4% (238)
50.9% (57)
Away
46.0% (309)
51.8% (56)
By Period
Lorentz
Johnson
P1
49.1%
44.1%
P2
48.0%
59.4%
P3
47.2%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | OT | 04:50 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |