Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Stamkos 54.4% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 68.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 61.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (686)
55.8% (339)
-0.8%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
53.3% (90)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
62.5% (8)
+37.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
56.1% (428)
53.4% (208)
Away
56.6% (429)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
58.9%
55.3%
P2
55.4%
52.5%
P3
54.1%
58.9%
OT
70.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.7%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |