Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 94.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 6: Dowd 5-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
49.3% (670)
+2.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
53.7% (121)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
33.3% (3)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
51.5% (619)
54.0% (400)
Away
48.1% (576)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
51.7%
48.6%
P2
51.6%
54.5%
P3
47.0%
45.4%
OT
22.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |