Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Oshie wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Oshie 46.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 98.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 89.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 84.4%
15.6%
84.4%
Oshie
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Oshie
Hertl
Last 8: Oshie 6-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
5
0
Oshie
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Oshie
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Oshie
1
0
Oshie
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Oshie
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (764)
53.8% (8,268)
-8.6%
Power Play
47.7% (1,221)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (164)
46.3% (806)
-6.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Oshie is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,672).
Oshie shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Oshie
Hertl
Home
48.7% (1,103)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
43.7% (1,047)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Oshie
Hertl
P1
47.3%
53.6%
P2
45.2%
54.1%
P3
46.7%
55.3%
OT
40.8%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
46.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 03:18 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |