Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Thompson 45.3% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 63.2%
Defensive zone
Veleno 85.0%
Neutral zone
Veleno 69.2%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Veleno
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Veleno
Thompson
Last 6: Veleno 4-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Veleno
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
3
0
Veleno
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
44.9% (642)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
33.3% (33)
+4.6%
On even strength, Veleno has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Veleno is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Veleno shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Veleno
Thompson
Home
49.6% (123)
46.0% (391)
Away
52.8% (178)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Veleno
Thompson
P1
54.8%
48.1%
P2
49.2%
44.9%
P3
52.6%
41.2%
OT
25.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
60.3%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 01:06 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 02:32 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |