Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 88.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 96.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 93.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 92.4%
92.4%
7.6%
Paul
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
8
(24 meetings)
16
8
Paul
Thompson
Last 10: Paul 9-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
6
Paul
Thompson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
1
Paul
Thompson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
8
1
Paul
Thompson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
42.9% (3,521)
+9.6%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
46.8% (372)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
33.6% (265)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Paul shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Paul
Thompson
Home
52.7% (2,412)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Paul
Thompson
P1
53.9%
44.5%
P2
51.0%
43.6%
P3
52.0%
40.2%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 07:54 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |