Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-0 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 94.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 75.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
10
(10 meetings)
0
10
Lowry
Hertl
Last 10: Lowry 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Lowry
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Lowry
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
54.1% (717)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
61.9% (210)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
58.1% (31)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
53.0% (583)
58.1% (492)
Away
50.6% (605)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
52.1%
57.1%
P2
51.8%
54.0%
P3
52.3%
56.6%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |