Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Hertl 54.2% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 80.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 94.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
9
(23 meetings)
14
9
Tkachuk
Hertl
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
13
2
Tkachuk
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Tkachuk
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.8%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
46.3% (806)
-1.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
50.7% (1,428)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
49.4%
53.6%
P2
51.3%
54.1%
P3
49.3%
55.3%
OT
57.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |